Patrick Artus economist explains that some signals and some developments appear consistently when they approach the end of a period of expansion in the United States. These signs appear to be systematic: the decline in manufacturing employment; the decline in profitability; share repurchases by companies; the downturn in housing starts, building permits, housing sales; and rising corporate defaults. Today all these signals are observed except those related to residential real estate, and with only a very slight decline of industrial employment, says the economist.
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